Content
- Engineering Decisions below Uncertainty
- Introduction to Risk-Based Decision-Making
- Feasibility of hydraulic electricity plant
- Definition of Risk
- The Risk-Based Decision Process
- Define Context
- Define System
- Identify Hazard Scenario
- Analysis of Consequences
- Analysis of Probability
- Identify Critical Risk Scenarios
- Analysis of Sensitivities
- Risk Assessment
- Risk Treatment
- Monitoring and Review
- Detailing of Risk Analysis
- Sources of Risk in Engineering
- General Risks for Individuals
- Risks Due to Natural Hazards
- Risks Due to Malevolence
- Risks Due to Structural Failures
- The Role of Human Errors
- Human blunders in bridge design
- A Review of Reported Failures
- Failures of Building and Bridge Structures
- Failure of Dam Structures
- Failures of Offshore Structures
- Failures of Pipelines
- Failures in Nuclear Power Plants Failures of Chemical Facilities
- Review of Basic Probability Theory and Statistics
- Definition of Probability
- Frequentist Definition
- Classical Definition
- Bayesian Definition
- Practical Implications of the Different Interpretations of Probability
- Conditional Probability and Bayes’ Rule
- Introduction to Descriptive Statistics
- Numerical Summaries
- Central Measures
- Concrete compressive electricity records Dispersion Measures
- Other Measures
- Measures of Correlation
- Graphical Representations
- Introduction to Engineering Uncertainty Modelling
- Uncertainties in Engineering Problems
- Random Variables
- Random Processes and Extremes
- Introduction to Engineering Model Building
- Selection of Probability Distributions Model Selection with the aid of using Use of Probability Paper
- Estimation of Distribution Parameters
- Bayesian Decision Analysis
- Risk Assessment in Civil Engineering
- Elements of Classical Reliability Theory
- Methods of Structural Reliability Analysis
- Probabilistic Modelling in Structural Engineering
- Time Variant Reliability Analysis
- Structural Systems Reliability Analysis
- Bayesian Probabilistic Nets in Risk Assessment
- Basis for the Design of Structures
- Reliability Based Assessment and Inspection of Structures
- Risk Acceptance and Life Safety in Decision Making
- References
- Index
Preface
Over the past decade, there has been public concern about sustainable development, which focuses on protecting the environment, individual well-being, and security while reducing the use of natural and economic resources available to society. This issue can easily be seen as a matter of urgent decision because of the risks and potential risks of our actions –items are known as risks.
The continuous development of society requires us to manage risks, predominantly human-caused, in a conscious, sustainable and rational manner. According to the basic principles of decision theory, this is a requirement for a successful organization. Solving problems is a matter of choosing how to allocate society’s available resources. Choice inseparable from the culture we rely on, for example G. the right to equality of opportunity, education, well-being and security. The question is and should always be: how to best use the resources of society, in accordance with these values. In such a simple way, risk management for society should be seen as a serious issue and decision makers at all levels of society should therefore bear great responsibility.
Risk management refers to analysis, evaluation and decision-making regarding the risks of a particular activity or the risks associated with a particular accident. The risk management plan includes bringing together all the uncertainties surrounding the problem and all possible outcomes.
We have very important work ahead of us, at least in the construction sector. As always, new construction projects must be designed, planned and implemented in a cost-effective manner, taking into account the benefits of the projects as well as potential risks such as loss of life, damage to the environment and, of course, direct costs. In the future, will need to focus more and more on impact for the maintenance, maintenance and closure of social infrastructure. Especially given that climate change is on its way and the changes it predicts, and the enormous efforts they may undertake to protect our existing infrastructure.
Risk and reliability analysis methods, which have developed significantly in the last thirty years in the construction industry, are increasingly gaining importance as a decision support tool in the construction industry. Their value in assessing and measuring damage and planning risk reduction and mitigation measures is highly valued in the construction industry. In the future, the importance of risk and reliability methods for civil engineers will increase; This is also reflected in increasing regulatory requirements for disclosure of legal risks in the planning and execution of construction activities.
Risk and reliability analysis in many engineering disciplines requires a solid foundation in one or more of the classical engineering disciplines, in addition to a comprehensive understanding of feasibility, reliability analysis, and decision analysis.
This book aims to provide basic knowledge and insight into risk analysis issues in the construction industry and is based on the thesis I wrote at ETH Zurich Institute of Technology, Switzerland, for graduate students with little or no prior knowledge in this field. The material for the book is generally compiled from the best parts of the general literature, including bibliographies, scientific publications and research reports. Based on my experience in technical consultancy and participation in industrial development and research projects, I have tried to present the materials in a way that relates to the “engineering process”. The aim is to present decision problems and their solutions. The cost of this is the loss of accurate statistics, the benefit is – hopefully – a more accurate description of the material presented.
It is important to treat the book as an ever-evolving project that will hopefully evolve from season to season. In doing so, I am grateful for the assistance of my enthusiastic colleagues,
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